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Fossil Fuels will remain a major source of global energy through 2050 and beyond disrupting the drive for zero carbon emissions
The Problem
The Biggest Carbon Polluters
The two most carbon polluting sectors are transportation and power generation together account for 70% of CO2 emissions.
Mitigating Carbon Emissions: Power Generation
Replace fossil fuels with wind and solar
Pros:
- Eliminate carbon emissions
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Cons:
- Significant power grid restructuring
- power storage
- Mothball existing facilities
- lose jobs in vulnerable communities
- lose large investment
- decommissioning costs
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Mitigating Carbon Emission: Transportation
Replace Petroleum based fuels with Electricity - Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Pros:
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Eliminate carbon emissions from individual vehicles
Cons:
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Remove carbon emissions from individual vehicles to power plants where 70% is still fueled by fossil fuels
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Not suitable for Aviation and Marine Transportation
2050 And Beyond
Predictions are that despite large investments in renewables, the reduction in carbon emissions will be marginal. 70%+ of Transportation and Power Generation will still be fueled by fossil fuels.
Electric Power:
In 2020 fossil fuels accounted for 70% of global generation, by 2050 this will drop to 53%.
In 2020 fossil fuels generated 16,268 TWh globally. while it is predicted that in 2050 they are expected to generate 21,408 TWh - equal to the total generation in 2010.
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Transportation:
predictions are that in 2050 some 700 million Electric Vehicles (EVs) will be on the road - almost 32% of all vehicles.
Still 1,510 million vehicles will be fueled by fossil fuels leading to carbon emissions levels greater than in 2020
EVs' technology is mot suitable for Aviation and Marine transportation.
The end result: Despite Government's policies and growing public awareness, carbon emissions are not expected to be eliminated in 2050. In fact, it is predicted that carbon emissions will increase not be significantly reduced compared with 2020.
Source: ExxonMobil 2021 Outlook for Energy
This is unacceptable from global warming perspective.
Immediate measures must be planned and implemented with immediate effect to achieve the agreed-upon objective of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C.
Source: ExxonMobil 2021 Outlook for Energy
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